Statistical Sciences 1023A/B Lecture Notes - Lecture 8: Conjunction Fallacy, Risk Perception, Representativeness Heuristic
29 Mar 2017
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Relative frequency probability a measure of the long-run relative frequency of an event occurring, in identical repeated trials. To assign probabilities: make an assumption about the theoretical probability, observe the relative frequency over many repetitions of the procedure. Probability distribution summarizes the possible outcomes for a procedure &the frequency at which they occur. Using the relative frequency approach to probability is only applicable for procedures that: can be repeated many times, the outcomes are independent a. Independent events knowledge of one event does not influence the probability of the other event. Impossible event has a probability of 0 and a sure thing has a probability of 1. If there are only 2 possible outcomes in an uncertain situation their probabilities must add up to 1. If 2 outcomes can"t happen simultaneously they are mutually exclusive o. Probability of either of the mutually exclusive outcomes happening is the sum of their individual probabilities.
