ECON 3430 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Financial Instrument, Business Cycle

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By the end of the chapter, we will be able to: recognize the importance of financial markets in the economy, describe how financial intermediation and financial innovation affect banking and the economy. Identify the basic links among monetary policy, the business cycle, and economic variables: explain the importance of exchange rates in a global economy. Why study financial markets: financial markets: channel funds from those who do not have a productive use for them to those that do. It directly affects our lives, businesses, and economy: to learn about bond markets, interest rates, and stock markets. 4% interest on means you must repay when due. The stock market: a stock is a share of ownership in a corporation. Gives clai(cid:373) to the corporatio(cid:374)"s ear(cid:374)i(cid:374)gs a(cid:374)d assets: a stock market is where stocks are bought and sold, the value of stocks reflects the current value of a company, and expectations of future earnings growth.

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1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nationâs spending amount which increases the economyâs deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. Thatâs what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that âyou canât be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneouslyâat least I canât see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.â He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesnât agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesnât change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates arenât declining meaning investment wouldnât continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states âMost spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.â He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soroâs point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states âThe other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.â He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: âBut when you have a collapse of credit thereâs only one source of credit that is still credible, and thatâs the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.â I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugmanâs IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugmanâs points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

Niall Ferguson believed that expansionary fiscal policy could produce a crowding-out effect. Ferguson believed that if the government tried to increase demand during the crisis it would cause the real interest rate to increase. He theorized that if the government tried to boost the economy through deficit spending it would cause the interest rate to rise, which in turn would crowd-out investors and consumers. The interest in the deficit would lead to an increase in the demand for loanable funds, which would lead to an increase in interest rates. Ferguson stated "The lesson of economic growth is very clear. Economic growth does not come from state-led infrastructure investment. It comes from technological innovation, and gains in productivity, and these things come from private sector, not from the state."

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Paul Krugman disagreed with Ferguson and believed that the government deficit could not produce a crowding out effect. Krugman's liquidity trap: Private demand is so low that even if the short-term interest rate is 0% spending is less that what is needed for full employment. Normal monetary policy of the central bank purchasing short-term debts with new money is ineffective. Krugman argues that a major issue during the crisis was people wanting to save money combined with the private sector being far less likely to invest. He referred to this a "savings glut". It was argued that the federal reserve was playing the part that the private banking system through buying private securities and the federal government was playing the roll that business wasn't by engaging in investment. Due to the liquidity trap excess demand for savings is not going to drive interest rates up. Krugman stated " Government borrowing gives some of those excess saving a place to go and in the process expands overall demand, and hence GDP. It does not crowd out private spending, at least not until the excess supply of savings has been sopped up, which is the same thing as saying not until the economy has escaped from the liquidity trap."

I agree with Soros view that the publics view of the financial markets has been forever changed. " Financial markets namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. But the finical system collapsed of its own weight." I feel like this is a situation in which it takes a very long time to build trust, but that trust can be lost instantly. The crash has challenged the felling of security that people once felt in the banking system. The idea of the market regulating itself is fading, it wasn't until the government stepped that people felt reassured in the banking system. I believe this will lead to a period of government regulation that wouldn't have arose without this change in view. I disagree with robin Wells' view that the US needs to shift towards protectionism. I believe that free trade is good for everyone as long as there is a comparative advantage. If the US moves toward protections as a result of the deficit it will slow economic growth and place us at a disadvantage compared to countries with free trade. Not to mention consumers in the US will be placed with the burden of higher prices on goods.

Please make comments to the discussion I provided above(at least 300 words). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

1. Is opportunity cost always present?

2. What is the problem at the heart of economics?

3. What is included in GDP and what is excluded?

4. If the consumer price index increases, how does this impact the average citizen?

5. What is the business cycle?

6. What is the relationship among the potential output level of the economy, the natural rate of unemployment, cyclical unemployment, structural unemployment, and frictional unemployment?

7. What did Keynesians believe about investment and the adjustment of wage rates?

8. What did pre-Keynesian believe about the market and its ability to pull itself out of a recession?

9. What role do investments in human capital, physical capital, technology development, and improving institutional quality play in creating economic growth?

10. How does a fractional reserve banking system work and what is the relationship between the money multiplier and the reserve requirement?

Wh What is fiscal policy?

12. What are the relations between government spending, the marginal propensity to consume, the marginal propensity to save, and the multiplier effect?

13. What are some of the problems with using fiscal policy in an effective manner?

14. What role did the Great Depression play in changing the government%u2019s approach to the economy?

15. What is stagflation and how did it challenge Keynesian orthodoxy?

16. What is supply side economics and how does it function?

17. What is the crowding out effect?

18. What is the new classical approach to the stimulatory impact of fiscal policy implemented through deficit spending?

19. What role does the department of the Treasury play in the American economy?

20. What role does the Federal Reserve Banking system play in managing the American policy?

21. What are the tools that the Fed uses to influence the money supply?

22. What approach to the money supply do those embracing monetarism suggest?

23. What dangers does monetary policy pose for the economy?

24. How do shifting price levels impact debtors and savers?

25. Can you use aggregate demand/ aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of a tax cut?

26. Can you use aggregate demand/ aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of a tax increase?

27. Can you use aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of an increase in government spending?

28. Can you use aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of a cut in government spending?

29. Can you use aggregate demand/aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of an expansionary monetary policy?

30. Can you use aggregate demand/ aggregate supply analysis to understand and explain the impact of a restrictive monetary policy?

31. How do automatic stabilizers influence the economy?

32. How does a deficit and large debt influence the economy?

33. What is the relationship between the expansion of the money supply and inflation?

34. What is the relationship between interest rates and inflation rates?

35. How do expectations impact the effectiveness of monetary policy?

36. What restricts the ability of the Fed to purchase U.S. securities?

37. What is Money?

38. What is the primary motivation of bankers and banks?

39. What is the impact of higher interest rates on the value of a currency and a nation%u2019s net exports?

40. What is the Conference Board and what does it do?

41. Why do countries willing lend the U.S. government money despite the relatively large debt to GDP ratio of the United States?

42. How does trade contribute to growth?

43. How do institutions contribute to growth?

44. How does the relative size of government contribute to growth?

45. What is the Philips Curve?

46. How does the rule of 70 work?

47. Do High Income countries always grow at a faster pace than lesser developed countries?

48. How do high levels of inflation effect growth?

49. Can you identify the amount of growth in an economy by using the percentage change formula?

50. What countries are presently experiencing high rates of economic growth?

12.

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ECON 3430 Lecture Notes - Lecture 1: Financial Instrument, Business Cycle

ECON 3430 Full Course Notes

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