Module 2 topics : the need for psychological science: overcoming human thinking tendencies such as:
Hindsight bias: seeing meaning in coincidence and overconfidence error
The scientific attitude: curious, skeptical, and humble
Critical Thinking : refers to a more careful style of forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using
intuition, will help us develop more effective and accurate ways.
Hindsight bias “I knew it all along” like a crystal ball that we use to predict… the past
Overconfidence error “I am sure I am correct”
The coincidence error or mistakenly perceiving order in random events: “The dice must be fixed
because you rolled three sixes in a row”
Overconfidence error 1: Performance
We are much too certain in our judgements
We overestimate our performance, our rate of work, our skills, and our degree of self-control
Overconfidence error 2: Accuracy
We overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge. People are much more certain than they are accurate.
Overconfidence is a problem in eyewitness testimony.
Overconfidence is also a problem on tests, if you feel confident that you know a concept, try explaining
it to someone else.
Perceiving order in random events
Why do we make these errors and overuse our intuition? From an evolutionary perspective:
Hindsight: might be an offshoot of our useful habit of analyzing an event and trying to figure out why it
Overconfidence: might help us lead other people; certainty builds confidence in followers more than
Scientific attitude part 1: Curiosity (always asking new questions)
Scientific attitude part 2: Skepticism (not accepting a “fact” as true without challenging i