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PSYC 1010 Sept 12.docx

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PSYC 1010
Heather Jenkin

PSYC 1010 Sept 12 Module 2 topics : the need for psychological science: overcoming human thinking tendencies such as: Hindsight bias: seeing meaning in coincidence and overconfidence error The scientific attitude: curious, skeptical, and humble Critical Thinking : refers to a more careful style of forming and evaluating knowledge than simply using intuition, will help us develop more effective and accurate ways. Hindsight bias “I knew it all along” like a crystal ball that we use to predict… the past Overconfidence error “I am sure I am correct” The coincidence error or mistakenly perceiving order in random events: “The dice must be fixed because you rolled three sixes in a row” Overconfidence error 1: Performance We are much too certain in our judgements We overestimate our performance, our rate of work, our skills, and our degree of self-control Overconfidence error 2: Accuracy We overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge. People are much more certain than they are accurate. Overconfidence is a problem in eyewitness testimony. Overconfidence is also a problem on tests, if you feel confident that you know a concept, try explaining it to someone else. Perceiving order in random events Why do we make these errors and overuse our intuition? From an evolutionary perspective: Hindsight: might be an offshoot of our useful habit of analyzing an event and trying to figure out why it occurred. Overconfidence: might help us lead other people; certainty builds confidence in followers more than accuracy does. Scientific attitude part 1: Curiosity (always asking new questions) Scientific attitude part 2: Skepticism (not accepting a “fact” as true without challenging i
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