ECON 203 Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Federal Funds Rate, Aggregate Supply, Inflation Targeting

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4 Aug 2015

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Econ 203: principles of macroeconomics - lecture 15: more on monetary policy. Monetary policy in the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model. In our previous studies, we used a static ad-as curve in order to keep things simple. However, in reality, potential gdp increases every year (i. e. long-run growth), and the economy generally experiences inflation every year. We can account for this in the dynamic ad-as model. Annual increases in long-run aggregate supply (potential gdp). Typically, larger annual increases in aggregate demand. Typically, smaller annual increases in short-run aggregate supply. Typically, therefore, annual increases in the price level. If the fed attempts to implement expansionary policy in the dynamic model, real gdp will be at its potential, but the inflation rate will be higher than it normally would have been in the static model. If the fed implements contractionary policy, there will be a lower real gdp and less inflation than otherwise would have occurred in the static model.

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Consider the scenario in which the Fed is implementing a contractionary monetary policy aimed at alleviating inflationary pressures.In this regard please provide an answer to the questions listed below. In order to answer, it might be a good idea to use a money market diagram and show how interest rates affect the economy using the AD/AS diagram. No need to submit the graphs, but once again drawing the two graphs (money market and AD/AS) for yourself will go a long way in guiding you towards the right answer. Note. In the static AD/AS model, initially assume that the economy is in SR equilibrium and real GDP is above potential GDP. a) As a result of the contractionary monetary policy pursued by the Fed, what would happen with the interest rate? The interest rate is going to (rise/fall/stay fixed) Blank 1 . b) What would happen with the short run aggregate supply curve? Short run aggregate supply curve will shift (left/right/stay fixed) Blank 2 . c) What would happen with the long run aggregate supply curve? Long run aggregate supply curve will shift (left/right/stay fixed) Blank 3 . d) What would happen with the aggregate demand curve? Aggregate demand curve will shift (left/right/stay fixed) Blank 4 . e) What would happen with the Real GDP level? Real GDP will (rise/fall/stay fixed) Blank 5 . f) What would happen with the employment level? Unmployment level will (rise/fall/stay fixed) Blank 6 .

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1. Which of the following shifts aggregate demand to the right?
a. Congress reduces purchases of new weapons systems.
b. US exports increase.
c. The price level falls
d. New developments in IT increase the productivity of most manufacturing industries in the US.

2. Suppose the EPA introduces new smog regulation that makes it costlier to produce cars. As a result, aggregate supply falls (primary effect) and firms cut back on production. With less output in the economy available for consumers, consumers bid up the prices of available output. With higher prices, firms choose to produce more (secondary effect).
Which of the following best explains what the net effect on GDP?
a. The two effects should essentially cancel out, with little to no effect on GDP, but the price level clearly rises.
b. It is impossible to say what happens to GDP without being able to compare the magnitudes of the two effects.
c. Real GDP rises as the secondary effect dominates the primary effect.
d. Real GDP falls since the primary effect dominates the secondary effect.

3. A Keynesian economist who observes an output gap would conclude that
a. aggregate demand should be shifted to the right.
b. a policy of deregulation would be better than demand management policy
c. aggregate supply should be shifted to the right
d. All proposed answer options are correct

4. Monetarists believe
a. the Aggregate Supply curve is upward-sloping (but not vertical) over all time frames.
b. the Aggregate Supply curve can be treated as horizontal in the long run (over 10 years
c. the Aggregate Supply curve is vertical only in the very long run (over 20 years).
d. the Aggregate Supply curve can be treated as vertical in the short-to-medium run (1-2 years)

5. Suppose the price of oil increases due to conflict in the Middle East. How will this be illustrated in the AD-AS model?
a. The aggregate demand curve will shift to the left
b. The aggregate supply curve will shift to the left.
c. The aggregate demand curve will shift to the right
d. The aggregate supply curve will shift to the right

6. Assume a Keynesian AS curve. In the short run, when there is a large output gap
a. contractionary demand management policy is likely to be highly inflationary
b. expansionary demand management policy does not cause much inflation.
c. expansionary demand management policy is likely to be highly inflationary
d. the government should use contractionary demand management policy

7. As a result of Bush tax cuts that partially expired in January 2013, the marginal tax rates for some households increased and these households paid higher taxes. Which of the following would be the best description of the tax cut expiration?
a. Rightward shift in AS
b. Rightward shift in AD
c. Leftward shift in AD
d. Leftward shift in AS

8. Suppose that the U.S. government increases income taxes on individuals earning more than $500,000/year and uses the revenue from this tax increase to subsidize the cost of energy for businesses. How will this policy change affect the U.S. economy?
a. The effect on output is ambiguous but price level will decrease for sure
b. The effect on both output and price level is ambiguous.
c. The effect on price level is ambiguous but output will increase for sure
d. The effect on price level is ambiguous but output will decrease for sure

9. If Australia, which imports goods from the United States, went into recession, we would expect that U.S. net exports would
a. rise, making aggregate demand shift right.
b. rise, making aggregate demand shift left
c. fall, making aggregate demand shift left
d. fall, making aggregate demand shift right

10. Suppose that Greece decides to exit the European Union and the Euro Zone, causing a boost in business confidence in European markets. How would you illustrate the primary effect of Greeceâs decision in the AD-AS model for the EU economy?

Note: for this question, assume that Y in the AD-AS model represents output (GDP) of EU member countries without Greece.
a. a shift in the aggregate supply curve to the left and a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the left
b. a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the right
c. a shift in the aggregate demand curve to the left
d. movement along the aggregate demand curve to the left

11. The Austrian school of thought believes that demand management policy should not be used because
a. big government prefers deregulation, which shifts aggregate supply
b. the economy is always at full employment
c. shifting AD to the right is likely to cause deflation
d. big government has a bias towards inflationary policy

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The demand for money
A) d and e are correct
B) all of the following are correct
C) decreases as the average selling price of a unit of outputincreases
D) increases as GDP increases
E) is increased by credit card usage
2. The higher the interest rate, the more of their wealth peoplewill hold as money.
A) True
B) False
3. The money demand curve slopes
A) downward because the cost of holding money decreases as theinterest rate decreases
B) downward because the cost of holding money increases as theinterest rate decreases
C) upward because people demand more money as GDP increases
D) upward because people demand more money as GDP decreases
E) downward because people demand more money as the price levelincreases
4. Which of the following, other things constant, will shift themoney demand curve to the left?
A) an increase in the interest rate
B) a decrease in the interest rate
C) a decrease in real GDP
D) an increase in real GDP
E) an increase in the price level
5. An increase in the money supply will
A) increase the demand for money at each interest rate
B) decrease the demand for money at each interest rate
C) lead people to try to exchange money for interest-bearingassets
D) lead people to try to exchange interest-bearing assets formoney
E) increase the interest rate
6. When an increase in the money supply reduces the interest rate,investment and nominal GDP increase.
A) True
B) False
7. In the short run, a decrease in the money supply will cause adecrease in Gross Domestic Product and a decrease in the pricelevel.
A) True
B) False
8. The demand curve for investment is graphed with __________ onthe vertical axis and __________ on the horizontal axis.
A) the interest rate; investment
B) investment; the interest rate
C) the price level; investment
D) investment; the price level
E) real GDP; investment
9. As the interest rate increases,
A) the demand for investment curve shifts to the right
B) the demand for investment curve shifts to the left
C) there is a movement downward along the demand for investmentcurve
D) there is a movement upward along the demand for investmentcurve
E) GDP increases
10. If the economy experiences a contractionary gap and the Fedstimulates the economy, then:
A) The money supply is increasing because the Fed prints moremoney
B) The money supply is decreasing because the Fed hoardsmoney
C) The money supply is increasing because the Fed makes open-marketpurchases
D) The money supply is decreasing because the Fed makes open-marketsales
E) There is no change in the money supply because the Fed cannotinfluence the money supply
11. If the Fed decreases the money supply, GDP
A) increases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to a decrease in investment
B) increases because the resulting decrease in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
C) decreases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to a decrease in investment
D) decreases because the resulting increase in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
E) decreases because the resulting decrease in the interest rateleads to an increase in investment
12. An increase in the money supply can increase the price level,real GDP, or both, but it is impossible to tell exactly what willhappen without knowing the slope of the aggregate supplycurve.
A) True
B) False
13. If the economy experiences an expansionary gap and the Fedsells US government securities in the open-market, then:
A) Money supply increases, investment increases, aggregate demandincreases
B) Money supply increases, the interest rate increases, and theaggregate demand increases
C) Money supply decreases, the interest rate decreases, and theaggregate demand falls
D) Money supply decreases, the investment decreases, and theaggregate demand decreases
E) Interest rate falls, investment falls, aggregate demandincreases
14. If the money supply equals $1,000 and nominal GDP equals$3,000, then V
A) equals 1/3
B) equals 3
C) equals 3 million
D) cannot be determined since we do not know anything aboutprices
E) cannot be determined since we do not know anything about realGDP
15. If the money supply is increasing at a constant 8 percent,velocity is constant, real GDP is increasing at 5 percent, and theinflation rate is 3 percent, which of the following is true?
A) The growth rate of GDP is too low to be maintained.
B) The inflation rate is too low to be maintained.
C) Velocity is too low to be maintained.
D) The money supply growth rate is too low to be maintained.
E) This situation can continue indefinitely.
16. If real output and velocity are stable and predictable, thenthe equation of exchange can be used to derive a simplerelationship between
A) the money supply and the price level
B) the money supply and the interest rate
C) the money supply and the foreign exchange rate
D) velocity and real GDP
E) velocity and nominal GDP
17. For the quantity theory of money to yield usefulpredictions,
A) fiscal policy must be ineffective in altering aggregatedemand
B) fiscal policy must be effective in altering aggregatedemand
C) the economy must be operating at the potential level of realGross Domestic Product
D) velocity must be stable or predictable
E) velocity must be unstable
18. A rising rate of inflation
A) makes people more willing to hold money as an asset
B) reduces the usefulness of money as a store of value and thusincreases the velocity of money
C) increases the usefulness of money as a medium of exchange andthus reduces the velocity of money
D) is usually preceded by a reduction in the money supply
E) does not, apparently, have any effect on the velocity ofmoney
19. There is considerable disagreement about whether the Fedshould
A) engage in open market operations
B) have the power to set reserve requirements
C) reduce the money supply when the economy is growing
D) allow banks to invest in the stock market
E) attempt to control interest rates or should instead attempt tocontrol the money supply
20. For interest rates to remain stable during economic expansions,the growth rate of the money supply should
A) exceed the growth in the demand for money
B) just match the growth in the demand for money
C) be less than the growth in the demand for money
D) be zero
E) just match the growth in nominal GDP

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ECON 203 Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Federal Funds Rate, Aggregate Supply, Inflation Targeting

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