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POL 51 (46)
Lecture 10

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Political Science
POL 51
Ben Highton

51514Pol 51 Lecture 10Thinking about the 1980 presidential electionin 1980 former California governor Ronald Reagan was the Republican nominee for presidentin the general election Reagan received almost 60 of the major party vote in CAwhat if the Republican nominee had been someone elseWould it have been higher Would it have been lower Would it have been the sameIf higher or lower how much higher or lowerWhat is the theory behind your answersThe Home State EffectTo determine a presidential candidates home state advantage we should asses how many votes he got beyond what was expectedVr The vote Reagan received in CA in 1980 595Vo The vote a candidate other than Reagan would have received in CA in 1980Home State EffectVrVoWhats the problem To know the home state effect with certainty we need to observe the counter factual condition of the 1980 presidential election having a different Republican candidate while everything else remains the same We cannot observe the counterfactural condition so we are faced with the Fundamental Problem of Causal InferenceWhat should we doA LargeN approach to studying home state effectsUnit of analysis major party Democratic and Republican presidential candidatesTime period 19722012 11 presidential e
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