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Kendrick Taylor looks over the WAIS drill That, at least, is the theory. But temperature can be exchanged between the poles through other channels, including the atmosphere, which moves heat faster than ocean currents do, says Bo Vinther, a postdoc at the Un versity of Copenhagen, who has worked on coring projects in Greenland and Antarctica. Ifpalaeoclimatologists see long lags between temperature changes at the poles when they stack the WAIS cores up against those from Greenland, that evidence would suggest a lead role for the ocean in the bipolar seesaw. But a shorter lag would suggest a more prominent role for theatmosphere. The CO2 record will help to answer this ques tion, too: CO2 from deep in the ocean, where arge masses of organic matter have decom. posed, has a different isotopic signature from terrestrial or atmospheric CO2. Heavier CO n the WAIS record would suggest that ocean. irculation bringing up deep water was largely responsible for the bipolar seesaw. With about a kilometre of ice left to pull up, Taylor is hopeful that the core will be complete by the end of the next drilling season. But the final metres can be the toughest to dig up because the drill's descent grows longer with each segment ofextracted core. "We can get it all done next season ifevery thing goes perfectly," he says. "But this is Antarctica. Every day is a surprise Chaz Firestone Mischler, J. A etai. Glob, Biogeochem, Cycles 23, GB4024 2009 22. Bluni & Brook, E. Science 291, 09-112 (2001 3. EPICA Community Members Nature 444,195-198 (2006) For more images from the camp, VeansoG. see go nature.com Altered microbe makes biofuel In a bid to overcome the drawbacks ames Liao, a metabolic engineer and of existing biofuels, researchers have synthetic biologist at the University of engineered a bacterium that can convert California, Los Angeles a form of raw plant biomass directly into LS9's calculations, performed with the clean, road-ready diesel. help of the Argonne National Laboratory So far, biofuels have largely been limited in Illinois, show that the biodiesel that it is to ethanol, which is harder to transport preparing to market reduces greenhouse than petrol and is made from crop plants gas emissions by 85% compared with such as maize (corn) and sugarcane, standard diesel. That calculation is based putting vehicles in competition with on using Brazilian sugarcane, which is hungry mouths. In this week's Nature a much more efficient feedstock than researchers from the University of maize LS9 says that the shift from sugars California, Berkeley, and the biotech firm to biomass as a feedstock would reduce LS9 of South San Francisco, California, greenhouse gases even further. among others describe apotential solution The company has been working to modified Escherichia coli bacterium that convert sugars into tailored molecules for can make biodiesel directly from sugar several years, says co-author Stephen del omponent The process has Cardayre, LS9's vice-president for research and development. hemicellulose, of plant fibre (see page 559 a lot of promise The method can be tailored However, their university to produce ahost of high for actually being collaborators went two steps value chemicals, including further, eliminating the need for commercialized molecules that mimic additives and then folding in the standard petrol, and could be expanded to ability to use hemicellulose asafeedstock. work on tougher cellulosicmaterials, the This a representation of the type researchers say. of efforts that are going to move us to The work identifies a potentially cost biomass," he says. effective way of converting grass orcrop The researchers basically amplified waste directly into fuel, filling gas tanks and then short-circuited E coli's internal without raising global food prices or machinery for producing large fatty-acid increasing hunger and deforestation i molecules, enabling them to convert far-flung locales. Moreover, the process precursor molecules directly into fuels is much more climate friendly than and other chemicals. The team then facturing ethanol from maize, and inserted genes from other bacteria to manu produces higher-energy fuels that are produce enzymes able to break down interchangeable with current petroleum hemicellulose. In all, the authors report products. The next step is to scale the more than a dozen genetic modifications process up and adapt it to cellulose, which The results could buoy LS9, says Mark makes up the bulk of plant material Bunger, a research director at business "It's a nice milestone in the field of consultancy Lux Research in San Francisco. biofuels, and it has a lot of promise for Like its competitors, including Amyris actually being commer rcialized," says of Emeryville, California, and South San Francisco-based S LS9 struggled for funding in 2008 and early 2009 because of the drop in oil prices and the economic downturn, Bunger says. But LS9 made it through, securing US$25 million in new funding from various sources, including a strategic partnership with oil giant Chevron last September. The company plans to open a commercial-scale demonstration plant later this year. eff Tollefso Switchgrass could be made into diesel cleanly and quickly.

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Article:

TESTING THE GLOBAL CENTRAL BANK SWAP NETWORK

In the last few weeks, the ECB has been drawing on its liquidity swap line with the Fed, first $308 million for a week, then $658 million for a week, and last week back down to $358 million. Whatâs that about?

Itâs not such a large amount. Bank of Japan borrowed more in the past, $810 million in March and $1528 million in January. But the question then repeats, what was that about?

Both of these drawings are part of the new set of central bank swap lines linking what I call the C6: the Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, and Bank of Canada. On October 31, 2013these lines were made permanent and unlimited; contract details may be found here. Ever since then I have had a slide in my powerpoints saying âForget the G7, Watch the C6.â

So now weâre watching. What are we seeing?

Central bank swaps are in some ways quite similar to a standard commercial FX swap, but the differences are important and significant.

A standard swap involves exchange of two currencies today at the spot exchange rate prevailing today, plus a promise to reverse the transaction at maturity using the forward exchange rate prevailing today. Suppose that forward rate is calculated using covered interest parity as

F = S(1+r)/(1+r*)

where r and r* are respectively the dollar and foreign interest rate for a given term T, s is the spot exchange rate and f is the forward exchange rate for date T.

In this case, the exposure of the standard swap contract is identical to a swap of IOUs between the contracting parties at the prevailing interest rates in their respective currencies. One party borrows dollars at rate r and the other party borrows euros at the rate r*.

Central bank swaps are different. First, the forward rate in the contract is usually exactly the same as the current spot exchange rate. This means that central banks are never in the position of realizing profits or losses from the swap (although of course there will be implicit profits and losses), that come from deviation between the agreed forward rate and the spot rate at expiry.

Second, the interest rate on the contract is negotiated rather than calculated from market prices. But, given the choice of forward rate, the analogous commercial contract would call for payment of the interest differential, so anything different from that is significant. Significantly, the documentation of the current C6 swap line leaves open the question of who pays interest to who, and how much.

Usual practice has been for the party who draws on the line to pay interest on the line at some penalty rate. Thus the May 9, 2010 swap agreement between the Fed and ECB called for the ECB to pay the USD Overnight Index Swap Rate plus 100 basis points on its dollar borrowing, and the Fed to pay nothing on its euro borrowing. In effect, the ECB was simply borrowing dollars at the discount window, like any other bank, but with its own monetary liability serving as collateral instead of some financial asset.

This kind of arrangement is still in effect a swap of IOUs but at a price that is away from the market. Central bank swap lines thus in effect operate as a kind of outside spread providing bounds within which normal commercial dealing takes place. So long as prices stay at or near CIP, private agents prefer to do business directly with each other. But when CIP comes under pressure, because of one-sided liquidity flows, the central bank moves from backstop to market-maker and the outside price becomes the market price.

The ECB is borrowing dollars from the Fed and lending them on to banks in Europe who have dollar liquidity needs. Here is the tender documentation. Presumably it is doing this for banks who are unable, for whatever reason, to access dollar funding in the open market, or only at a premium that is higher than the ECB charges.

During the financial crisis, dollar funding needs like this got met by central bank liquidity swaps that rose almost to $600 billion, raising questions in Congress. Now, in normal times, smaller sums are becoming a routine way of handling the normal stresses and strains of world funding flows.

For lack of a world central bank, we have a network of central bank liquidity swaps.

(Council on Foreign Relations has a fun interactive app that shows the rest of the emerging swap network as well.)

Questions:

2. Forward rates in standard swaps are set relative to spot rates to eliminate arbitrage opportunities. Using a numerical example, demonstrate that an arbitrage opportunity would exist if a forward exchange rate quote differed from the formula given in Mehrlingâs article.

3. How do swap lines between central banks differ from standard foreign exchange swap contracts? How are forward rates set? How are interest rates determined?