POLI 244 Study Guide - Robert Jervis, Endangerment, Henry Kissinger
12 Dec 2012
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Document Summary
An actor has to try to predict how others will act and how their actions will affect his values in determining how he will act. Hypothesis 1: actors tend to perceive what they expect. A theory will have greater impact on an actor"s interpretation of data the greater the ambiguity of the data and the higher the degree of confidence with which the actor holds the theory. Hypothesis 2: actors tend to establish their theories and expectations prematurely often necessary given the need for action in politics. Evidence is usually always ambiguous since accurate clues to others" intentions are surrounded by noise and deception. Hypothesis 3: actors can more easily assimilate into their established image of another actor information contradicting that image if the information is transmitted and considered bit by bit than if it all comes at once. Safeguards able to minimize error in their inferences.
