Public Opinion Notes.pdf

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Modeste Mba Talla

PUBLIC OPINION Week 6.1: Measuring public opinion Only have to watch the videos**  Pay attention to typology of pool and different types, and critical issues regarding typology pools (4 or 5 types?) Week 8.1: Public Opinion and Democracy Focus on debate between Walter Lippman verses John Dewey WL: Direct democracy is impossible because ordinary citizens could not be expected to make rational decisions about specific affaires - Operations of politics were largely invisible and inaccessible to the average citizen - Rely to much on media= that media cannot provide the sorts of political information citizens need to make decisions - Public opinion is linked to elite political behavior is called “retrospective voting” JD: WL is descriptive- nothing to do with the limit of citizenship or democracy - Democracy depended upon the direct democracy of its citizens - Democratic government required that citizens be given the opportunity to participate in the active - Emphasize cooperation rather individual competition - Group participation - Representative democracy - Social scientific knowledge an important resource for public decision making should not become simply a body of knowledge in the hands of elites Week 8.2  Know what Recoil effect is. Understand the term. Relationship: leader versus public opinion = Who is the driver? (?? All there was…) Week 9.1: Why is campaigning is more expensive nowadays?  Ideas of campaigning and expenses***. Why today’s campaigns are more expensive, you have to think about that. - It costs five times more to gain a new customer than to retain an existing one - Expensive advertising and ad space, expensive services (things I can think of) Evaluation of social marketing campaigns?  Evaluation** of social marketing of campaigns - According to a Forrester poll, consumer-to-consumer recommendations carry a higher trust factor than virtually all other forms of advertising Week 9.2 Focus on differences between 1-Controlled media - Are those that planners pay for and produce themselves, selecting their own themes, messages, target audiences, and schedules. Includes commercials and other bought – and- paid – for broadcast 2-Uncontrolled media - New coverage, No direct control over what is reported, when or to whom. Focus on categories of media (TV, newspaper, social media) This week he talked about: which is important, which is more influential, which is more trustworthy, which is more popular. He will have a graph with media on the left and then the qualities on the other side.** - Voters may learn a considerable amount from news coverage of candidates Newspapers, Television and Social media (all there was…) Social media: something surrounding social media (….nothing on this) Influence during political campaign - Convincing voters to switch from one candidate to another - A persuasive influence election campaigns are more likely to have is to keep already decided supporters of a candidate on track, reinforcing their decisions and motivating them to go to the polls - Voters who pick a candidate closer to election day are more likely to be influenced by the campaign and to base their choice on issues or candidate characteristics emphasized in the campaign  Type of typology. One author talked about 3 types of voters. (Figure out who) He tried to see the type of voter who can be more influences by campaign (….nothing about this either) Things that make public opinion polls difficult - Sample: people who participated, can be too small(not enough people) or too narrow(certain type of people) - Interviewer Bias: the effect the person asking the question has on the questions their asking. People give socially desired responses to avoid confrontation - Push Poll: pushes people to answer a certain way. - People may have low interest in the questions Week 10.1 Issues and opinion polls  Video on justice and opinion polls  Death penalty in Canada*** he gave the question in this weeks class - Attitudes for harsher sentencing grew for harsher punishment and then they lowered from the 1990s - In 1976, Canada abolished the death penalty, although 80% of the public were in favor of the death penalty. Over 30 years support for the death penalty started to fall - Young people are less supportive than older people. - Support for death penalty is about 50%, seems to continue to fall  Elite opinion overriding public opinion - Civil services are often people who are more educated than the public and offer advice on what to do in term of policy making.  Same video: policy makers, law makers, in relation to their own community, making a link between community and elite opinion** …Opinion of the elites who are different from the community Question on debate about policy and policy change and the impact of public opinion? - Civil services have the opinion of the public in mind in most cases - Civil and Public servants often do the polling and find the public opinion to inform ministers. 10.2 Opinion Polls: - Voter expectations concerning the outcome of an election on the performance a party or candidate have come to play an increasingly important role in the study of voting behavior - The voter may base his decision not only on his own preference but on expectations of what other voters will do - “Viability” and “electability”: related to how well the candidates will be able to appeal to other voters - Expectations are acquired cognitively Voters & Expectations: - The strongest empirical evidence that identifies polls as the source of expectations is the study of the 1988 Canadian election by Johnston et al. - Those who followed the polls were better able to predict the outcome - More attention to politics and elections brings expectations into the range set by the polls - Voters may also rely on the reputation of the party as a winner - “Wishful thinking” was the most important source of expectations - “Regular membership in the polity” is necessary to form accurate expectations about who will win the election 11.1 Danger of Inaccurate Polls: - Inaccurate polls have as strong an influence on the public as true polls - Misuse of polls, for biased or venal purposes by pollsters or by those who hire pollsters, can be extremely harmful - Leaders who misinterpret and distort polls in dealing with the public are a menace to society - There is too literal an acceptance of the validity of attitude polls; many people believe that when a poll shows 51 per cent of the public favoring a proposition, that this is the will of the public - Today the poll has muffled dissenting voices; that is a real danger to our democratic way of arriving at conclusions - Even inaccurate and inept attitude polls influence the public - There are dangers from the use of stacked, false, phony polls for biased or venal purposes - Polls are a temptation to pollsters or to groups which, without social responsibility, use polls for their own ends knowing the credence the public gives them - The people, as represented by their state or national government, must insure themselves against malpractice of any profession fraught with the public interest De
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