ECON 330D1 Chapter 16: Chapter 16

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brownminnow325

9 Feb 2017

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Chapter 16: business cycles and the international transmission of economic activity. Business cycles are periodic fluctuations in economic activity. An upturn/expansion in the economic activity culminates in a peak, which is followed by a downturn/contraction. The downturn reaches a bottom, which is called a trough. The trough then leads to an upturn, which then leads to a peak. These are the four phases of a business cycle. Business cycles can be defined in two ways: (1) they can be defined in terms of absolute movements in economic activity. To illustrate, under this definition, the downturn would be a decrease in output and employment. (2) for a growing economy it can be defined as movements around the trend level of economic activity. In this case, the downturn would be a decline in the growth rates of output and employment from their trend levels, even if there is no absolute decline in variables. Cyclical fluctuations occur in large numbers of economic variables.

Related Questions

A number macroeconomic variables decline during recessions. One of these variables is the GDP.

a) What other variables, besides real GDP, tend to decline during recessions? Given the definition of real GDP and its components, explain the declines in these economic variables which are to be expected.

b) Empirical studies indicate that the long-run trend in real GDP of the USA has an upward trend. How is this possible given business cycles and macroeconomic fluctuations? What factors explain the upward trend in spite of the cycles

Use the following to answer questions 8-12:

8. Refer to thegraph above. A complete business cycle is represented by:
A) A to G B) O toC C) A to F D) C to F

9. Refer to thegraph above. A movement from point A to D represents a(n):
A) trough. B)peak. C) recession. D)expansion

10. Refer to the graph above. Amovement from point D to G represents a(n):
A) trough. B)downturn. C) recession. D)expansion

11. Refer to the graph above. Apeak occurs when the economy:
A) moves from point C to point F.C) reaches points C or F.
B) reaches points E or D D) reaches points A or B.

12. Refer to the graph above. Arecession occurs when the economy moves from point:
A) B to point E. B) C to pointF. C) A to point D. D) D topoint G.

13. Almost all economists agreethat during a(n) __________ economic policy __________ be used toimprove economic conditions
A) depression; should C) expansion; should not
B) recession; should D) boom; should not

14. Cyclical unemployment isproduced by:
A) a slowdown in economic activity.
B) economic restructuring.
C) the institutional structure of theeconomy.
D) an increase in the number of people enteringthe labor force.

15. The automation of anassembly line is likely to result in:
A) structural unemployment. C) cyclical unemployment.
B) frictional unemployment. D) seasonal unemployment.

16. The unemployment producedby fluctuations in economic activity is called:
A) frictional unemployment. C) natural unemployment.
B) cyclical unemployment. D) structural unemployment.

17. Macroeconomic policy isbelieved to be most effective in reducing:
A) frictional unemployment. C) cyclical unemployment.
B) natural unemployment. D) structural unemployment.

grayrat725

Ques. 1 Read the following comprehension and answer the given questions . (2 x 2= 4 marks)

People often ask economists for predictions about the future of the macroeconomy. Forecasts about the economyâs future, even from experts, are not unlike a baseball writerâs prediction of who will play in the next World Series. The prediction can seem well-reasoned and logical, but it is hardly foolproof. Certain statistical series tend to move in similar ways through all business cycles. Knowledge of these series and their tendencies can provide some insight into future business cycle movements. The Conference Board, a not-for-profit organization, publishes monthly updates of what is called the âindex of leading economic indicators.â The index is a weighted average of 10 statistical series that usually lead, or begin turning upward and downward, before the overall economy does. Because not all the components of the index turn before the business cycle hits a peak or a trough, movements in the index are more reliable than the movement in any one of its components. Among the most reliable of the leading indicators is an index of prices for 500 common stocks. Investors want to buy stock shares when their prices are relatively low and sell shares when prices are relatively high. During a recession, stock prices fall due to sluggish sales and profits. Interest rates are relatively low during the last months of recessions because of reduced demand for investment. In choosing between buying bonds and stocks, investors will favor stocks when: (a) stock prices have fallen to a point where there is a strong possibility of future capital gains, and (b) the opportunity cost of buying stocksâthe interest rate on bondsâis low. Therefore, prices of common stocks will usually begin to rise during the late stages of a business cycle, before a business expansion begins. As the economy moves near full employment during an expansion, the situation is reversed. Strong demand for consumer goods and investment will drive prices and interest rates upward. At some point, investors sell stocks to realize capital gains and buy bonds, rather than stocks, to take advantage of high interest rates. The downward movement in stock prices will usually begin before a recession begins.

a. Scientists make accurate predictions of the movement of asteroids and comets. Why canât economists make accurate predictions of business cycle movements?

b. Assume that the U.S. economy is in a recession. Mild weather results in lower demand for energy and a reduction in the price of oil. Investors interpret this as positive news for firms because their costs of production will be lowered. An increase in stock prices results. Will an economic expansion follow?

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ECON 330D1 Chapter 16: Chapter 16

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