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CRI 200 Chapter Notes - Chapter N/A: Overfitting, George Clooney

Creative Industries
Course Code
CRI 200
Jeremy Shtern

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Liderg, Be. 6. Ho to Aoid a Bo Offie Disaster. TheRiger.oAvailable on e-reserves.
How to Avoid a Box Office Disaster
How to know whether a movie will do well in theatres or not
RIPD was set to be a summer blockbuster with a $130 mill budget, but ended up bombing at the
box office and only making $33.6 mill domestically
Joshua Lynn knew that this movie would bomb because months before it premiered it came in
with a low rating of 137 (half of what a typical movie scores)
Based on surveys
Goldman Dilemma
Willia Golda eliees that o oe kos athig aout hat’s goig to ake it ig s,
hat is’t
They try to predict public taste 3 years ahead of time
Joshua Ly’s Algorith It’s reall just a sure
Nowadays we try to predict everything with algorithms and machines
L’s algorith attepts ot to oerfit as oies hae a ariatios to osider
“treaig series are usig the algoriths ot so uh to hage the otet, ut to
take the content that exists and market it to eatl the right audiee.
Rather tha aitig for the fiished fil to get feedak, L sure’s audiee
reactions based on testing their connection to the film title, concept and see what type
of response is elicited
He also tweaks certain things such as changing the cast and director to see how
audiences would react to it
In one survey, commissioned by Piedmont, Lynn was to test a movie idea:
He questions 3,000 respondents who mirror what a typical demographic would be in
order to produce the consumer engagement score forming a predictive model
Oe ajor olusio is that er fe ators are reliale dras eaig that haig
certain actors may not produce value for a film
With the exception of Denzel Washington whose name adds value consistently
no matter what he was in
In Gravity, having George Clooney and Sandra Bullock in it only increased value
by 17%, most people went to watch because they liked the concept of the film
Same idea of value goes with directors, only some exceptions (Spielberg,
Tarantino..) were of added value as they are known to create good works - an
almost reliable fact
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
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