ANTC68H3 Chapter Notes -Malaria

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27 Jan 2013
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ANTC68 WINTER 2013
Week # 4: Regional Warming and Malaria Resurgence by Patz et Al.
Patz et Al
Disease outbreaks are known to be often influenced by local weather but how
changes in disease trends might be affected by long term global warming is more
difficult to establish
Hay et. Al found no significant change in long term climate at four locations where
malaria incidence has been increasing since 1976
Patz et al believe these conclusions to be flawed due to inappropriate use of global
climate set
The mean site altitudes used by Hay et al compared to those of the actual input
weather station differ on average by 575 m wwhich corresponds to a temperature
deviation of 3 degrees celsisu
Hay et al focus on climate trend but climate change also applies to change in
variability
Patz et al have found regional warming trends in east Africa that parallel rising
trends in malaria incidence
Patz et al believe that there is a close association between malaria transmission and
monthly maximum temperature anomalies from 1997 to 2000 using data from the
same location and over the same period of time
Hay et Al reply
In our study, we did not address the impact of predicted climate change on malaria
incidence
They were not point incidences we used
Using data from Kakamega and Nairobi are irrevlanet
Malaria incidence is related to climate that any study of long term climate change
must factor out seasonality, unlike the cited study on seasonal variability over four
years
Rather than climate change, variation in environmental, social and epidemiological
factors are more plausible explanations for the malaria resurgences at the four sites
we examined and at three other in Ethiopia, Madagascar, and Tanzania
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