POL215Y1 Chapter Notes -Andrei Lankov, Brinkmanship, Kims
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Staying Alive: Why North Korea will not Change By Andrei Lankov
•Fifteen years ago, Kim Jon Il still remains in power due to his ruthless
leadership, gift for political manipulation, and use of brinkmanship
diplomacy. (no one else has tried to take him down).
•Kim is both the head of the Korean Worker’s party and the head of
•The Pyongyang is comparable to the Stalin Regime where the dictator
•The collapse of Soviet Union cut the industrial output by as much as
50% and resulting from it, is massive poverty.
•Only functioning part of the North Korean markets is the unofficial
•In 2005, Kim’s government attempted to revive the rationing system
but they have only been partly successful due to limited funds.
•China and South Korea have kept their aid funds towards NK.
oChina does it in order to have a strategic buffer zone and also
fears that if NK were to implode, it would produce refugees into
their already overpopulated area.
oSK wants to keep up their funding in order to equal the huge
disparity between SK and NK’s income gap. If they were to join
together again, the SK economy would tank thanks to the costs
•Moreover, Seoul no longer believes that the North poses a threat
anymore. They believe that Japan poses a bigger threat.
•Both China and SK views the Chinese version of dictatorship: Economic
liberalization with limited, incremental political change is the way to
oThis way the NKs can close the economic gap with SK.
Moins Ca Change
•Despite the leverage both country has with NK, neither China nor SK
succeeded in persuading Pyongyang to change.
•In 2002 in July, it seemed like there was hope since the Kim
government issues the Improved Economic Management Measures,
which decriminalized many market activities.
•However this was false hope as the NK’s government dialed back to
the state control method in 2005 (October)
oPublic Distribution System would be fully reinstated and
outlawed the sale of grain on the market.
•With the abolishment of markets, the former works of factories were
forced back to work.
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