Pols241 Oct 8 week 5 lecture 2
Last class we identified 5 key groups in Bureaucratic Authoritarian regimes.
o 1) core supporters
Run the show
Unlikely to give up power because they were forced to, they have to decide to
give up power themselves.
o 2) Coercive apparatus of the state
People doing the repression and monitoring
o 3) passive supporters
Accept the argument of the regime that the regime will protect them from the
o 4) active opponents
Believe the regime is their enemy, they want to force the core to give up. (ex.
See things in normative and manachaist terms
Take risks in trying to bring town regime
o 5) passive opponents
Oppose the regime based on utilitarian calculations
Job of the opposition is to try and convince core to give up power
o How? (there are certain conditions)
1) crisis or failure (can be economic or the loss of a war ie. Argentina- Malvinas
Undermines legitimacy of regime
2) neighbourhood effect
3) Core supporters
When things go bad they tend to splinter and divide into different
o This helps convince leaders to give up
o These different groups go into different directions
1) some become radicalized ( called “escaping ahead”)
Reflex is to increase repression, so to kill and
torture more people.
Problem is that it speeds up the repression of
They project an image of the regime being “self
2) some other staunch supporters are also radicalized
However, they believe only improvements will
help the regime to survive. (ie. Getting a new
leader) Want to modernize the regime and want to
keep their power in the regime.
However this makes the regime look weak.
o thus this helps discredit the regime
o also you end up with clashing between
causes chaos within the core of
the regime, could lead to a civil
3) Deradicalized (former supporters leave)
o In this group members say that they’ve