PSYC 221 Lecture Notes - Lecture 11: Modus Tollens, Modus Ponens, Null Hypothesis
10 Aug 2015
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Rader & sloutsky: 60. 8% correct vs 59. 2% incorrect-affirm the consequence illicit conversion: tendency to reverse propositions in the if-then: search errors: i. ii. don"t search for evidence but rely on first impression/ example that comes to mind. If theory a is true, then data x should be gathered in experiment, data x is gathered, so a is true affirming the consequence. Decisions: decision making is a search of evidence, where the ultimate decision depends on some criterion or rule for evaluating the evidence. Northern us: chicago = southern euro rome latitude. 1. judge the frequency/ probability of some event on the basis of how easily examples/ instances can be recalled or remembered the frequency of events is a kind of info that is coded in memory. Simulation heuristic: we predict a future event/ imagine a different outcome to completed events. 2. forecasting of how some event will turn out/ have turn out differently under another set of circumstances.
