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POLB81 Lec 6,7,8.doc

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Political Science
Charles Hoffman

Lecture 06: Feb 11/13 – Modern Conflict Of what is this instance? - Collective security and identifying aggressors o Adapting to non state violence - Linkage of conflicts o Transnational and intrastate o Intrastate conflict – conflict within the state boundaries o Interstate conflict/international conflict is state actors in conflict o Transnational is going beyond borders but involving non state actors - Fluid relationships - Asymmetric in the way that they are looking at different types of state actors – used to distinguish the kinds of characteristics itself Modern Conflict - Interstate conflict: traditional conflict [war between states] o Tools: collective security, diplomacy, balance of power, deterrence [identifying aggressor, about territory, tied to notion that you can punish the correct actor, or threaten to punish], arms control, rules of war – international law - Intrastate conflict: modern conflict [states and non states] - Transnational: modern conflict - Are these modern conflicts new? o Linkages to the conflicts are what makes them the key modern conflicts that we’re dealing with o Terrorism used to be restricted within a state – used to propose particular states o It is not globalized – especially with intrastate conflicts o Not talking about things the world hasn’t seen, but how the emergence of new actors have altered the nature of these conflicts Scope of Modern Conflict - Terrorism: violence with a political goal o used by non state actors o political violence is usually but not always directed at non combats - Causes: alienated by particular systems o Ideology that drives the acts – alkaida  Alienation from the global system, often tied to globalization o Key defining feature of terrorism is its globalized nature  Ease of mobility  How terrorism is perpetrated/plays out  East of information  Globalization can be seen as a means of terrorism o Nature of the problem itself is relatively contestant Nature of the problem: Genocide - The conscious act of trying to eliminate a group of people - Conflicts in Sudan are not restricted to the territory - Economic political feature to this which is to do with oil in china - Ethnic dimension that cuts across country borders Feb 25/13 Governing through the United Nations - Established to preserve peace after the Second World War - Reflected lessons learned from League of Nations - Reflects both demands of great power politics and universalism - UN was established to preserve peace after the WW2 - Not the first time that this kind of establishment was tried to establish peace - League of nations inability to deal were cause of many of the bad parts of the world war - States would come together to try to deal with the issues that cut across borders before they became something bigger - Wanted to deal with some of the flaws of the league of nations o Unanimity o No armed forces o US not a member - These made the leagues ineffectual when it came to dealing with major conflicts - Dual structure of UN is genius compromise cause it got UN up and running in a much more effective way than league of nations - Over time UN agenda has expanded – has become a multipurpose organization that deals with most of the issues that cut across borders Challenges with managing modern conflict within League of Nations - Autonomy to govern o Set up to protect and enhance sovereignty of states o Governing global issues in many cases requires weakening of sovereignty – they don’t always go hand in hand o Officially the UN does not have autonomy from states o Reasons UN has some autonomy 1- Diversity of members 2- Retreat of the state: because of globalization, the ability of states to deal with issues on their own has been restricted 3- 3 UN’s – member states, secretariats/civil service, civil society - Will and capacity to govern, it’s is important to have the P5 involved Governing terrorism - Define: hard to define due to liberation and decolonization struggles. Some would be considered to be terrorism depending on the definition - Getting the international community to agree that a group is a terrorist group is very challenging - Challenge: transnationalism - civil society is sometimes a help or hindrance o Is it preventing or protecting governance of terrorism could be seen as either a help or hindrance depending on how it’s done and how you define it - 3rd challenge: should governing terrorism be seen as self defence? o Dealing with terrorism can often be viewed as simply a self defence issue o Terrorism is fundamentally transnational  Not just the acts or the networks, but the funding Lecture 08- March 04, 2013 - Instance: Sovereign countries are no longer in complete control of their economies - Transnationalism – credit ratings agency Crisis: How do we know? - Immediate danger and needs immediate attention - Implies that we need help - Uncertainty, urgency - Large negative effects/fundamental problems - Critical juncture What issues become crises? - Economic loss - National disasters, terrorism - Uncontrollable or unforeseen issues that arise Financial Crisis - Crisis goes hand in hand with global capitalist economy - Rising wealth and efficiency – you need to prepared for the bad - Size and speed of crisis has grown with size and effectiveness of the global economies Tulip mania - Imported in Netherlands, virus changed colours so increased the price and they thought the prices could never go down - People were flooding the markets with selling tulip bulbs, so the market crashed as they waited for the prices to be high when they sold and bought them and borrowed money in order to afford them, then the market crashed Asian Financial Crisis - Boom in Asian economies which mean that money was pouring into Asia from Japan, Europe and Asia, because people wanted to invest because their economy was valuable at that time – there were high rates of return - Factories and foreign investments were being done - They thought economies would keep growing and had lots of potential for future growth o 1997 came to crashing halt – almost brought down whole global economy - Since the fall of Bretton Woods, the global economy relies of floating exchange rates o The exchange rates rise and fall depending on the market and supply and demand - Thai Baht – 25 baht = 1 USD, they thought this was too high – use currency reserves in order to maintain your currency o Didn’t work – went from 25-50 baht to 1 USD within months - Thailand 1997 o Corruption o Overproduction o Once it collapsed it had a huge affect on commodity prices – because you need more primary resources and if collapse in commodity prices, prices can spread out of one region onto the next o Countries that rely on commodities were next in line to suffer from Asian financial crisis o Stopped when IMF and Asian bank stepped in with financial resources to stabilize these countries’ economies o Fundamentals were off, but what could have been a small economic hiccup in small economic economy, ended up being a huge economic crisis Financial Crisis Today: US housing market bubble/collapse - Global pool of money o These people are always looking for high rates of return o Deregulation in 1980s and 1990s lead to the emergence to innovation and the housing boom – these were the triggers for the crisis o Innovation: lead to emergence of asset backed securities  Investing in a guess that the asset will increase in value, not a company  Mortgage backed securities  Investment banks would buy up mortgages and sell the right to be repaid instead of the actual mortgages – selling asset backed securities o Seemed attractive because housing prices seemed to be always going up o Because of deregulation, the incentive was that people saw that you could have lots of money with mortgage backed securities so banks wanted to create more. To do this, you needed more mortgages, which means you quickly run out of people who have the good credit and money to buy these  Makes them create different types of loans – interest only loans, instead of stating your actual income, you just had to say you had one  People would take these lines of credit because they were available and they thought that the housing prices would continue to go up and never go down  Even though they couldn’t afford it at the time, they saw that it would just going to keep increasing and they would have all this equity  Thought house prices could only go up, and not go down  Saw series of defaults of mortgages and the values of the securities crashed o Then people didn’t know how stable banks were and no one would lend money o Most of economy is based on credit o If that dries up, then it brings whole economy to stand still  Banks aren’t lending to anyone o If companies cannot get credit, then they cannot buy things, pay role, etc. o People lose jobs, people stop spending Common themes - Crisis go global quickly - Bubbles are bad, and capitalist - Crises originate globally Governance perspectives Hegemonism: what kind of a problem is financial crisis? - Systemic problem with capitalism - Not a problem, its expected Institutionalism: what kind of a problem is financial crisis? - Cooperation o Problem of interconnection management - Managing crisis, managing systemic risk March 18 Final review session April 11 – MW 160 Instance: Transnationalism – NGO acting - Sub-national state being sued - Global/local connection – a local response to one of the most global issues Last global issues of term – Climate Change - Adding nature to global governance The science of climate change - The basics: o Greenhouse effect – sun passes through air, warms up air/warms up earth. Radiation bounces off earth and bounces back into space. Certain gases in atmosphere absorb the radiation – our atmosphere keeps the earth warm because it absorbs some of the solar radiation. Good thing! o Greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane, water vapour, CFCc/HFCs, Nitrous oxide  Humanity is pumping these gases into atmosphere at higher rates so the concentration of these gases is increasing – most energy systems are tied to the burning of fossil fuels (this is what emits so much carbon dioxide, and other greenhouse gases)  This is an enhanced greenhouse effect, the more there is in atmosphere, there is more potential for the warming of the earth  We are already seeing this warming, the concentrations of the gases are going up - 0.7 degrees Celsius of warming already o Global warming: warming of atmosphere causes changes such as drought patterns, transformed seasons, extreme heat/cold, melting of glaciers and sea ice will cause the Gulf Stream to flow more and make Europe colder. Can happen from natural causes o Climate change: the effects/what we are feeling because of the effects of global warming The Science of Climate Change - What
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