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Lecture

POL101Y1 - Unprecedented Politics.docx

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Department
Political Science
Course
POL101Y1
Professor
Joseph Wong
Semester
Winter

Description
Unprecedented Politics Mitigating Risk in an March 26 12 Uncertain WorldSARS Severe Acute Respiratory SyndromeNovember 2002 to July 20038098 people worldwide probably had it in 29 countries 744 people diedDisasters though rarely do happen unexpected Great uncertainty about the costDont know how to respond or fix thisLow probability high risk situations are a problem often faced in politicsGlobal Finance Value at Risk VAR modelMathematical model of risk analysis at JP MorganVAR of 100 million with 99 confidence Expressed in a single number Risk of losing total value of confidenceMeasurement of market confidence Systemic equilibrium At that particular moment the system was in
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