POL101Y1 Lecture : POL101Y1 - Unprecedented Politics.docx

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4 Apr 2012
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8098 people worldwide probably had it in 29 countries, 744 people died. Don"t know how to respond or fix this. Low probability, high risk situations are a problem often faced in politics. Mathematical model of risk analysis at jp morgan. Var of million with 99% confidence. Expressed in a single number, risk of losing total value of confidence. At that particular moment the system was in equilibrium. We want to use models to predict the future, but the future is unpredictable and unprecedented. We make decisions today, which will impact the future . Risk is the (im)probability of a certain outcome. Unknown but sense of probability (insurance) The norman distribution curve: most probability/ outcomes respond to this curve. Three mile island (1979) and chernobyl (1986) Low probability, high impact events; more common than we think. Government: mitigate low probability, high impact risk.

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