Psychology 2135A/B Lecture 16: Lecture 16 - Thursday November 17th, 2016

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Bill prefers quiet evenings at home on friday nights reading classic literature while enjoying a glass of shiraz. We do(cid:374)"t i(cid:374)(cid:272)o(cid:396)po(cid:396)ate p(cid:396)o(cid:271)a(cid:271)ilit(cid:455) (cid:449)he(cid:374) (cid:373)aki(cid:374)g judge(cid:373)e(cid:374)ts. The likelihood of a(cid:374) o(cid:271)je(cid:272)t"s (cid:271)elo(cid:374)gi(cid:374)g to a (cid:272)e(cid:396)tai(cid:374) (cid:272)atego(cid:396)(cid:455) is (cid:271)ased o(cid:374) ho(cid:449) (cid:396)ep(cid:396)ese(cid:374)tati(cid:448)e the o(cid:271)je(cid:272)t is of the larger category. Often fail to take base rate information into account. Which sequence of coin tosses is more likely to occur: a) hhhhh, b) htthht. Answer: each have an equal probability (1 in 64) Ga(cid:373)(cid:271)le(cid:396)"s falla(cid:272)(cid:455): the te(cid:374)de(cid:374)(cid:272)(cid:455) to pe(cid:396)(cid:272)ei(cid:448)e a li(cid:374)k (cid:271)et(cid:449)ee(cid:374) past a(cid:374)d futu(cid:396)e e(cid:448)e(cid:374)ts, (cid:449)he(cid:374) the e(cid:448)e(cid:374)ts a(cid:396)e a(cid:272)tuall(cid:455) independent. No difference: 56: we incorrectly assume that samples of small numbers are less representative of the larger population. Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations.

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