BU283 Lecture Notes - Lecture 20: Reynolds Group Holdings, Decision Analysis, The Monthly
Document Summary
Decision may be made by a group. Trial-and-error experimentation with the real system: may result in loss. Changes in the environment can occur continuously. Interface between the real world and the math world: design phase: The model is evaluated and validated and the criteria to evaluate the model is created. If reasonable, move on to the next phase. If failure occurs: return to the modeling process. Don"t make a type iii error- solving the wrong problem: in wwii, the location of bullet holes returning british airplanes were studied carefully. Additional armor to protect the place at the location of the bullet holes was suggested: did they solve the wrong problem, it"s the wrong problem because if the planes came back they weren"t shot. Even if they get hit in the spots they did its fine because they ended up coming back. The problem would be where the planes that didn"t come back got shot.
