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MHR 849 (14)
Lecture

Chapter 7.docx

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Department
Human Resources
Course
MHR 849
Professor
Rupa Banerjee
Semester
Winter

Description
Chapter 7: HR Demand Index/ Trend Analysis - Trend analysis: the historical relationship between an operational index and the number of employees required by the organization (demand for labour) - Operational indices include: o Number of units produced o Number of clients serviced o Production (eg. direct labour) hours Steps to Conducting Effective Index/Trend Analysis 1. Select the appropriate Business/Operational Index - The HR forecaster must select a readily available business index, such as sales level that is a. Known to have a direct influence on the organizational demand for labour b. Subjected to future forecasting as a result of the normal business planning process 2. Track the Business Index over Time – go back in time for at least four or five most recent years but most preferably for a decade or more to record the quantative or numberical levels of the index over time 3. Track the Workforce Size over Time – record historical figures of total number of employees, or, alternatively, the amount of direct and indirect labour for exactly the same period used in step 2 4. Calculate the Average Ratio of the Business Index to the Workforce Size - Obtain ratio by: Historical annual level of sale or level of production # of employees (historical average annual workforce) - Employee requirements ratio: the relationship between the operational index and the demand for labour 5. Calculate the Forecasted Demand for Labour ______________________________Annual forecast for business index__________________________ Average employee requirement ratio for each future year to arrive at forecaster annual demand for labour For each of the years: __________Level of sales _________ Average employee requirement ratio Delphi Technique - Delphi technique: a carefully designed program of sequential, individual interrogations (usually conducted through questionnaires) interspersed with information feedback on the opinions expressed by the other participants in previous rounds Advantages Disadvantages Avoids many problems associated with face to face groups: - Time and costs incurred can be higher than those incurred when - Shyness using alternative forecasting methods due to questionnaire - Perceived lower status or authority administration - Perceived communication deficiencies - Process is greatly dependent on individual knowledge and - Issues of individual dominance and groupthink commitment of each of the contributing experts since the results cannot be validated statistically - If insufficient attention has been paid to developing criteria for demand forecasts may lack sufficient expertise or information to contribute meaningfully to the process Six steps with using Delphi technique for HR demand forecasting: 1. Define and Refine the Issue or Question – project manager is assigned and works with HR staff to determine specific personnel category or activity that will be the focus of Delphi technique 2. Identify the Experts, Terms, and Time Horizon – identify and select team of individuals who are deemed to be experts with respect to the specific personnel grouping that requires a forecast 3. Or
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