Work Sheet – Forecasting
- Lea Ray is the revenue manager at the 200-room Hilton Garden Inn. She tracks her occupancy and ADR on a daily basis. The following data represent her hotel’s Thursday- night performance for the past seven weeks
Thursday
Week 1
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Week 5
Week 6
Week 7
Occ. %
69.5
73.5
66.5
72.0
72.5
69.0
77.0
ADR
$151.50
$145.95
$161.50
$178.50
$179.95
$129.95
$159.95
Using that historical data, calculate her average Occupancy %, ADR, and RevPAR for these trailing periods (using the moving average):
- For weeks 1–4
- For weeks 2–5
- For weeks 3–6
- For weeks 4–7
- What do you think would be Lea’s best estimate of next Thursday night’s (week8) RevPAR? Explain your answer.
- Nigar Patel prepares a daily Rooms Forecast Report that is shared with the housekeeping, food and beverage, and front desk managers of the 200-room Comfort Inn she both owns and manages. Today is Monday. Help Nigar complete Tuesday’s Rooms Forecast Report using the following information she has compiled from historical records, current PMS data, and her own insight into rooms sales-related events likely to occur today. When you have completed the forecast, answer the questions that follow
Rooms Forecast Report for Tuesday
Total rooms available 200
Net availability
- Stayovers 85
- Reservations ( Arrivals) 60
Adjustments
+ Early departures 10
